Post by surabaya on Apr 19, 2015 1:36:59 GMT
I know many people have discounted the Maldives sightings as irrelevant but I would like to suggest we take a one step back for a minute, and think outside the box. The reasons for discounting that MH370 went down in the Maldives is because;
OK, I will accept the first one, in that the Maldives is way off the 7th ping arc. If the Inmarsat data is correct, then MH370 is nowhere near the Maldives. But can anyone categorically prove that the Inmarsat analysis is 100% correct? Has anyone and can anyone give that kind of assurance? Many assumptions have been made in relation to the search location on or near the 7th arc and if the assumptions are correct, then that's where MH370 is. But what if they're not correct? The Inmarsat data assumes we have a satcom system in the aircraft that's responding in the normal way. But the factual information report suggests that the data, originating from the aircraft was abnormal for the second relogon at 1825 UTC and again at 0019 UTC. Refer to page 71 of the report. This would suggest we have a situation where the satcom system (and possibly even the aircraft) was in a degraded abnormal mode, that is, it wasn't working properly.
On the second point, some people have suggested that the Maldives sightings could not have been MH370 because the last ping occurred at 0019 UTC which was an aircraft initiated handshake. But the last GES initiated handshake occurred at 0115 UTC, to which there was no reply from the aircraft. Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't that saying, that the aircraft could still be in the air at 0019 UTC and it was only known for sure, that it wasn't when the 0115 UTC ping had no response? So the aircraft could still be in the air ar 0114 UTC for all we know?
And that's if the Inmarsat data is undeniably, 100% correct.
Thinking outside the box, the next point I'd like to make is the aircraft's fuel endurance. The Maldives is a lot closer than the predicted end point calculated by the ATSB and the IG by about 950 nautical miles. If the aircraft was flying at a slower true airspeed with a lower power setting, it's fuel consumption would not be as high, and therefore its endurance would be greater. I have done rough calculations for the fuel endurance for a true airspeed of around 230 knots for the B777 powered by the RB211 Trent 982 and it comes to approximately 5852 KG/hour (at 213,000 KG) to 4891 KG/hour at (171,000 KG) with airspeed ranging from 221 KIAS to 208 KIAS at an altitude of 10,000 ft. With such numbers, then it IS possible for a B777-200 to be in the air until 0115 UTC as claimed by the people of Kuda Huvadhoo in the Maldives.
This is just early days with my analysis for the Maldives probable sighting of MH370, and I have a lot more to say about this than what I have mentioned here, and why I believe it is still quite a possible option that should not be discounted at this stage, especially when no-one else, not even the official investigators have even looked at the data as I have to come to any conclusion.
Again, this is not a wild theory that I have pulled out of a hat and I challenge people to think outside the box and consider what I have written and DO THE CALCULATIONS themselves. I am prepared to be proven wrong on this, and if I am, I will happily accept it as I, like the people of the Kuda Huvadhoo, have nothing to gain for suggesting that MH370 could have flown there, and all we want to do, is find this missing aircraft.
More to come....
- 1. It doesn't fit the the Inmarsat data flight path trail.2. The timing of the sighting, being around 0115 UTC
OK, I will accept the first one, in that the Maldives is way off the 7th ping arc. If the Inmarsat data is correct, then MH370 is nowhere near the Maldives. But can anyone categorically prove that the Inmarsat analysis is 100% correct? Has anyone and can anyone give that kind of assurance? Many assumptions have been made in relation to the search location on or near the 7th arc and if the assumptions are correct, then that's where MH370 is. But what if they're not correct? The Inmarsat data assumes we have a satcom system in the aircraft that's responding in the normal way. But the factual information report suggests that the data, originating from the aircraft was abnormal for the second relogon at 1825 UTC and again at 0019 UTC. Refer to page 71 of the report. This would suggest we have a situation where the satcom system (and possibly even the aircraft) was in a degraded abnormal mode, that is, it wasn't working properly.
On the second point, some people have suggested that the Maldives sightings could not have been MH370 because the last ping occurred at 0019 UTC which was an aircraft initiated handshake. But the last GES initiated handshake occurred at 0115 UTC, to which there was no reply from the aircraft. Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't that saying, that the aircraft could still be in the air at 0019 UTC and it was only known for sure, that it wasn't when the 0115 UTC ping had no response? So the aircraft could still be in the air ar 0114 UTC for all we know?
And that's if the Inmarsat data is undeniably, 100% correct.
Thinking outside the box, the next point I'd like to make is the aircraft's fuel endurance. The Maldives is a lot closer than the predicted end point calculated by the ATSB and the IG by about 950 nautical miles. If the aircraft was flying at a slower true airspeed with a lower power setting, it's fuel consumption would not be as high, and therefore its endurance would be greater. I have done rough calculations for the fuel endurance for a true airspeed of around 230 knots for the B777 powered by the RB211 Trent 982 and it comes to approximately 5852 KG/hour (at 213,000 KG) to 4891 KG/hour at (171,000 KG) with airspeed ranging from 221 KIAS to 208 KIAS at an altitude of 10,000 ft. With such numbers, then it IS possible for a B777-200 to be in the air until 0115 UTC as claimed by the people of Kuda Huvadhoo in the Maldives.
This is just early days with my analysis for the Maldives probable sighting of MH370, and I have a lot more to say about this than what I have mentioned here, and why I believe it is still quite a possible option that should not be discounted at this stage, especially when no-one else, not even the official investigators have even looked at the data as I have to come to any conclusion.
Again, this is not a wild theory that I have pulled out of a hat and I challenge people to think outside the box and consider what I have written and DO THE CALCULATIONS themselves. I am prepared to be proven wrong on this, and if I am, I will happily accept it as I, like the people of the Kuda Huvadhoo, have nothing to gain for suggesting that MH370 could have flown there, and all we want to do, is find this missing aircraft.
More to come....